Al's Ramblings



Monday, January 14, 2008

(1/14/2008 02:23:00 PM) - Al

UPDATE: Bumped to the top due to incoming linkage.

This is an early look at how the Crew looks to match up offensively to the rest of the NL, looking at careers, 3 year splits, and BP's Marcel system, which is basically just math, with more emphasis placed on recent results.

Kendall

career--.375/.394, 769 OPS, 148 OXS, 67 simple runs created
2005-7--.340/.325, 665 OPS, 111 OXS, 50 src
3y away-.354/.341, 695 OPS, 121 OXS, 54 src
Marcel--.330/.330, 660 OPS, 109 OXS, 49 src
2007 NL-.318/.394, 712 OPS, 125 OXS, 56 src

This is a case where Jason's career numbers are all but useless, as what he did a decade ago is really not relevant to what he will do in '08. However, I don't think the Marcel system takes any kind of park factor into consideration, and his road numbers sure look like he was hurt by the A's stadium. Given the minute difference between his road splits the past three years and the average NL C in 2007, it seems pretty easy to just say Kendall's expected offense is "average", or a +0.

Fielder

career--.369/.546, 915 OPS, 201 OXS, 121 src
Marcel--.380/.550, 930 OPS, 209 OXS, 125 src
2007 NL-.365/.481, 846 OPS, 176 OXS, 105 src

Prince's career and 3y numbers are the same, of course. His '08 projection is pretty conservative compared to his 2007 campaign, but I feel a +20 runs is fair.

Weeks

career--.357/.410, 767 OPS, 146 OXS, 88 src
Marcel--.360/.430, 790 OPS, 155 OXS, 93 src
2007 NL-.339/.416, 755 OPS, 141 OXS, 85 src

It never fails to amaze me that even though most of us feel Rickie has never hit his stride, he still is above average for his position. I'm going to give him a +10, and I will probably project him even higher myself.

Hardy

career--.321/.429, 750 OPS, 138 OXS, 83 src
Marcel--.330/.440, 770 OPS, 145 OXS, 87 src
2007 NL-.322/.391, 713 OPS, 126 OXS, 76 src

I don't think Marcel gives JJ enough credit for his horrible 2005 start, and subsequent recovery...I would not be at all surprised to see both Hardy and Weeks with an 800 OPS in '08. That said, I'll make him a +10 for now.

Hall

career--.320/.467, 787 OPS, 149 OXS, 90 src
2005-7--.335/.495, 830 OPS, 166 OXS, 99 src
Marcel--.340/.480, 820 OPS, 163 OXS, 98 src
2007 NL-.334/.427, 761 OPS, 143 OXS, 86 src

I have to wonder what the 3B average would be without Braun's dominance, I would think he singlehandedly raised the 3B bar a few runs. Considering Hall is coming off a down year, I'm going to make him a +10 as well, and hope for more.

Braun

career--.370/.634, 1004 OPS, 235 OXS, 141 src (golly)
Marcel--.370/.580, 950 OPS, 215 OXS, 129 src
2007 NL-.358/.478, 836 OPS, 171 OXS, 103 src

My goodness, how dominating was his rookie campaign? Even though Marcel takes off a bunch of his SLG without giving him any OBP points (to me, fewer extra-base hits would probably mean they are throwing him a lot of breaking balls in the dirt, which I would assume would lead to more walks), he's still +25 on the offensive side of the ball.

Cameron

career--.341/.445, 786 OPS, 152 OXS, 91 src
2005-7--.342/.461, 803 OPS, 158 OXS, 95 src
3y road-.351/.469, 820 OPS, 165 OXS, 99 src
Marcel--.330/.440, 770 OPS, 145 OXS, 87 src
2007 NL-.340/.414, 754 OPS, 141 OXS, 84 src

Marcel appears to simply estimate low when the player is 35, as they came up with similar results for Kendall. I am going to make Mike +5, as he could easily be anywhere from 0-15, and it's also a bit different having only 137 games to judge him by. Still, his SLG, playing half his games in pitcher's parks, is impressive.

Hart

career--.340/.506, 846 OPS, 172 OXS, 103 src
Marcel--.350/.500, 850 OPS, 175 OXS, 105 src
2007 NL-.344/.442, 786 OPS, 152 OXS, 91 src

Marcel again barely raises a player nearing his mythical peak...and in this case, after a breakout 2007, the projection is so low it is almost offensive to common sense. I am not going to hesitate to make Corey +15, and I promise you, my projection will be higher than Marcel.

I'm going to list the bench as a group before making comment:

Gabe Gross

career--.343/.410, 753 OPS, 141 OXS
2005-7--.351/.437, 788 OPS, 153 OXS
Marcel--.350/.440, 790 OPS, 154 OXS
2007 LF-.358/.478, 836 OPS, 171 OXS
2007 CF-.340/.414, 754 OPS, 141 OXS

Joe Dillon

career--.333/.429, 762 OPS, 143 OXS
Marcel--.340/.430, 770 OPS, 146 OXS
2007 3B-.334/.427, 761 OPS, 143 OXS

Craig Counsell

career--.343/.347, 690 OPS, 119 OXS
2005-7--.337/.351, 688 OPS, 118 OXS
2007 SS-.322/.391, 713 OPS, 126 OXS

Eric Munson

career--.289/.394, 683 OPS, 114 OXS
2005-7--.294/.344, 638 OPS, 101 OXS
Marcel--.310/.390, 700 OPS, 121 OXS
2007 C--.318/.394, 712 OPS, 125 OPS


I'm not going to bother with the final spot, as I would assume it will be either Gabe Kapler or Tony Gwynn Jr, and needless to say, they will not garner much playing time, at least after the first 25 games. However, I am impressed that both Gross and Dillon grade out very nicely and could be seen as potential starters easily for some teams, Even Counsell and Munson, neither what I would call offensive weapons, grade out close to what their defense first positions average out at. I will take the easy way out here and say the bench is about average, and a +0.

That would put the starters at +95, with the bench at 0. Last year, the Brewers starters played about 82% of the time, which seems about normal. Since I took the easy way out, 18% of 0 remains 0, and 82% of 95 is 78, so I think it's probably safe to project the Brewers at about 78 runs above the NL "average". Last year, the Crew finished 38 runs above average.

UPDATE: Last year, the NL average was 763, so 78 above would be 841 runs, which would have finished 3rd, behind two teams that play in launching pads, the Phillies and Rockies.

If this team can stay as healthy as the '07 version, they should score about 40 runs more than last year. Considering the defense should also be either average or above average, compared to below average in '07, it is easy to see that even if the pitching remains the same, this should be an improved version in 2008.

If you believe many of the under 27 players will tend to improve more than Marcel thinks they will (as it actually has many regressing), it is very easy to be optimistic for the upcoming campaign.


1/14/2008 02:23:00 PM


Whatever strikes me as interesting, and serious Milwaukee Brewers thoughts. If you are a believer in respecting OBP, throwing strikes, and keeping the ball in the park, you may have found the place you've been searching for. I believe in low taxes, small government, and am not afraid to be labeled patriotic.

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