Al's Ramblings

Saturday, October 06, 2012

(10/06/2012 03:46:00 PM) - Al

*Greinke----29 on 7/1/13 (seasonal age), 3.39 ERA, 1035 IP
Dempster----36, 3.74, 997
*Floyd-------30, 4.12, 948
Jackson------29, 4.06, 996
Kuroda------38, 3.12, 918
Liriano-------29, 4.75, 695
Lohse--------34, 3.90, 809
Maholm------31, 4.12, 937
*Marcum-----31, 3.57, 671
*McCarthy---29, 3.66, 401
Peavy--------32, 3.69, 713
Sanchez------29, 3.85, 724
Zambrano----32, 4.06, 745

* Has some former relationship with the Crew, either by rumor or time in organization

---Greinke is tied for being the youngest FA, has the 2nd lowest ERA over the past five years, and has the most IP. He is far and away the best on the market, though his anxiety issues will lower his value and teams making offers.

---Perhaps the true strength of this class is how many solid vets I left off the list...Blanton, DiceK, Correia, Feldman, Wang are not in this class with consistency or overall numbers, but have had very good seasons, and could be better in 2013, for example. They might be available on 1-2 year contracts as well.

---Hard to believe Kuroda has been so great, even if he is very old. Aoki connection? 1-2 year contract?

---Second most innings, behind only Greinke? Dempster, who has been very good and has pitched in tough environments, Wrigley and Arlington. No idea if he would want to come to MIL, as he invoked his no-trade clause to avoid ATL earlier this season. He is from Vancouver, but now lives in'd think the Braves would have been a perfect fit. He's been very good, and will get at least a couple years despite his time outside the womb.

---Similarity between Lohse and Marcum, very high.

---I did not realize Brandon McCarthy was the same pitcher who the Brewers tried to sign as a free agent a couple years ago, but turned them down because the rotation seemed set. Doug knew him from his time in Texas. Many of us saw that breakout coming, as he had been very good when outside the bandbox in TEX. You have to wonder if his value will be down because of his injury.

---In many ways, Gavin Floyd makes a ton of sense...big (6-6, 240), good velocity (91.5 LY), ground ball pitcher, has made 30 starts and thrown 187 frames or more in four of the past five seasons. Also, he can be acquired two ways by the Brewers, as he has a team option for $9.5M with the Sox, so CHI could choose to exercise it and then trade him to the Brewers, or let him become a FA and MIL could get him in that manner.

--Difficult not to see Carlos Zambrano as a sleeper here...similar output to Jackson, Lohse, Sanchez, Floyd, and Maholm, and I would assume his innings total is low due to non-injury issues. There's no doubt he's a hothead, but as I often say, I'd a lot rather have to calm someone down than motivate them all the time. His velocity is down, and his last two seasons have by far his worst. Still, because of that, he'd be cheap and may well end up with a minor league deal.

Floyd, Dempster, Kuroda, McCarthy, and Marcum would be my top five most likely, based on expected contract size and expected production.

10/06/2012 03:46:00 PM

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