Tuesday, March 01, 2016
(3/01/2016 11:30:00 AM) - Al
I mentioned I ran my numbers and was surprised by the result. I double checked the math, and tried to ensure my pro Brewers bias was not making a difference.
Same results, second time.
First of all, allow me to explain my methods. I basically use the OXS calculations (for pitchers, OXSA) and "expected wins" based on runs scored and allowed. Last year, the Brewers won 68, but "should have" won 72, based solely on run differential. I have searched for a consistent outlier than indicates when teams "outperform" their runs scored and allowed, and have yet to find one. Usually, it seems the clubs with plus bullpens and that do well in one run games (itself a "luck" stat) tend to exceed expectations...however, if you will recall, the Brewers' back of the bullpen was excellent, and they were 16-16 in one run games.
So, as often is the case, the reason is nonexistent. Last year's version scored 655 and gave up 737. I ran two versions, with Lucroy and without (I doubt Jon will be with the team past mid March).
With Lucroy--681 scored, 699 allowed, 79 wins
Without Lucroy--656 scored, 699 allowed, 76 wins
I was expecting a result of between 67-73 wins. The easiest thing to see is my numbers have the Crew giving up 38 fewer runs. I have Garza reverting back to far closer to his career norms than last season, about 4.50. I also have the Crew's "extra" SP's (Davies/Lopez/Hader/Guerra) being in that same range (4.50-4.75), which would be a vast improvement over the result from Garza and Lohse. Also, if someone struggles, I feel the Crew will have depth to call on, while last year, the priority (and correctly so) was to allow Kyle and Matt to work their way through it, to try and get their trade value up.
The offense, without Lucroy of course, is boringly similar, as shown by the OBP and SLG:
2015--.307/.393, 700 OPS, 121 OXS
2016--.311/.385, 696 OPS, 120 OXS
As one may have guessed, the Crew slightly under performed what they "should have scored." While many may expect a huge falloff, one has to remember Lucroy had an off year, Scooter struggled early (both were injured early as well), Segura was basically replacement level, Ramirez was below his career norms, and Gomez went at partial strength for much of the campaign. So, while there would seemingly be a decrease in production at C/1B/3B/CF, one might expect some improvement from 2B/SS, with LF/RF ending up similarly...I expect 3B will end up better as well, depending on how the time ends up being split between Hill and Villar.
3/01/2016 11:30:00 AM