Al's Ramblings



Wednesday, April 27, 2016

(4/27/2016 01:30:00 PM) - Al

The thing about last night is this...the old media, and even many of the pundits, act as if elections are a coin toss, or perhaps better suited for this site, a baseball game of evenly matched clubs. They act as if the outcome is dependent on a pop up lost in the sun or a double play ball ruined by the ball hitting the lip of the grass.

Election results are almost always known before the polling places open...this year, they have hit all but one correctly, and that one was not "wrong" as it was poorly thought out, as it severly underestimated the amount of young people that vote. Therefore, the poll was correct, but they talked to far too many people my age, and even moreso, the 65+ folks. This is probably directly related to the overuse of landlines in election polling, a simple issue the poll takers can't seem to solve.

Trump is in no better shape after last night than he was before...we all knew he was going to win, and win easily, in the mostly moderate NE USA. We have known for weeks Cruz could not go into the convention with a majority of the delegates. It is also nearly impossible, and certainly extremely improbable, that Trump gets the majority. However, he will also have the most delegates going in. His strategy now is simple...get everyone to admit he's probably the nominee. The more it is said, the more it becomes accepted.

For weeks, months even, Meghan McCain said she supported "anyone but Trump." Of course, Trump had criticized her father, and despite her dad stating that "he would support the Republican nominee," she held out. So, time passes. It becomes more likely Trump is the nominee. She, along with many others who would prefer Trump not be the nominee, are forced to admit a vote for a 3rd party, as of now at least, is a vote for the presumptive Dem nominee, Hillary Clinton.

{I do not say presumptive because may lose to Sanders, as I can do math. I say presumptive because she is under FBI investigation and is in such poor health the old media cannot even keep it under wraps.}

The last time I heard Ms. McCain, when she was on Outnumbered last week, she said she was unsure, saying her family would need an apology from Trump for her to consider a Trump vote. Considering how silly that statement Trump made was, there's no doubt an apology will be made, very possible with Senator McCain at his side on the podium in front of the gullible old media. Trump will say, "Yeah, you know how I am, I get going, I say dumb things." And those that love him will go, "Yeah, that Donald," and like him more.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again...those who underestimate the appeal of Trump just continue to get it wrong. I was there too, very early, but I quickly saw the writing on the wall, the excitement of his supporters (many of which are either people that usually do not vote, independents, and moderate "common sense" Dems), and the fact that those who dislike him also seem to be terrified of him. He speaks to the anger, apathy, and disgust many feel, those that work hard; and have seen nothing from eight years of Obama other than higher taxes, more free rides for others, and an administration not even pretending they do not like the police, the military, and the American way.

What was it a little while ago? Trump can't get over 30% 35% 40% so therefore he cannot win. Trump is only winning because there are so many six five four people running. They attacked Carson, a brilliant man who is a godsend to the party...and were 100% wrong. Bush, because his last name was Bush. Christie, because his voters often had Trump as a 2nd choice (I never said they were intelligent complaints). And finally, the one you still hear, Trump cannot beat Hillary. They're right to a point, Trump never does as well as other candidates in head to head polls. Considering Trump has been likened to Hitler (or worse), that's not surprising. A generic Republican, one the public knows next to nothing about, does better. However, last I checked, there ain't no one named Generic Republican on the ballot, and Trump just keeps winning...and, oh by the way, with well over that supposed ceiling of 35-40%.

I've talked about Trump winning several times, as well as a 3rd party (I've mentioned the Libertarians often) actually, in theory at least, having a greater than zero chance of victory for the first time in my lifetime. And both are true.

They will still be writing books about the 2016 election fifty years from now. Don't let yourself get too close to not see the whole picture.


4/27/2016 01:30:00 PM


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