Al's Ramblings

Sunday, July 17, 2016

(7/17/2016 10:22:00 PM) - Al

Who will be dealt and who will not?

Going to go over the 25 man roster. First of all, the first list is guys who will not be dealt because they lack  sustained success in the past, lack options so have limited value, or are basically just roster filler, with little value, because a similar player can be found in AAA on most teams: That list includes:

Flores--all at 10% or less, if dealt, would not be "main cog" but more of a throw in

My 2nd list is players I don't think teams will offer enough at this point to be dealt. Basically, if any of these guys were dealt, I'd feel a young player most likely currently on the major league roster would have to come back, so if any were to be dealt, it'd have to be in the offseason:

Davies--all at 15% or less, if dealt, I'd be very surprised

3rd list includes players who teams will ask about, and the Crew will decide they would rather keep them due to upside, team control, or because other clubs will simply not offer "enough."

Maldy--20%...I simply do not see the demand, and Lucroy will be gone.
Perez--20%...Brewers like him more than others.
Braun--20%...Too much for teams to think about now; salary, length of contract, luxury tax issues, who would pay the deferred money, probably need 1-2 players currently in the bigs. Still, probably the best player "on the block."
Anderson--20%...I'll put him on here just because most "in the know" baseball people feel SP's will be overvalued and overpaid for. A team like the Rangers would love to have some cheap 4.50 ERA guys...but he's not been a 4.50 arm, he's been a 5.50 arm. He has not went 5 innings in his last 4 starts...not peaking at the right time.
Thornburg--25%...Limited value due to injuries in past, stature. Still, would not shock me, has been best RP
Carter--30%...Little discussion, and he's streaky. Still, he's able to play 1B/LF and many AL teams would love his power at DH, maybe not an every day player for some.
Gennett--30%...A better 2B than many clubs have, but I get the feeling Stearns realizes how few 2B have his offensive potential. Craig is also a known believer.
Jeffress--35%...I think he will be offered, and already has been. Other clubs will hesitate to offer what Crew wants due to drug suspensions (Crew feels that is taken care of) and kind of an "oddball" mix of results (high velocity, lots of ground balls)
Guerra--35%...Not much of a track record, but Pomeranz has been a SP for 3.5 months and got the best pitching prospect in a solid BOS system. And he's 31...pretending he's a normal rookie is pointless, he's not.

Final list I feel will be dealt, at some point before the end of the season (includes AUG and the rare SEP trade):

Lucroy--90%...He's the rare player that could be worth a couple wins in the last two months. Don't forget, he's hit enough and is seen as "gritty," so a team might bring him on as a backup C/part time1B/part time DH. Very few AL clubs have a "full time" DH.
Smith--75%...Rare LH RP and rare Brewers' player that other teams may feel could do more with them; as a closer or as a 8th inning guy who can get RH bats out. Has proven he is 100% as well. May also be preferable to teams as Yankees are asking a king's ransom for Chapman or Miller; comes with years of control and no pesky domestic abuse history
Torres--70%...Veteran quality relief guy, team control through 2018.
Nieuwenhuis--67%...Might be an AUG target, can play all 3 OF spots and has always hit RHP at an above average clip, teams needing a platoon/bench OF will see him as a nice option that can easily be jettisoned this winter.
Middlebrooks--67%...Might be a Neal Cotts type next to nothing return in AUG, but at least one team wanted him 3 weeks ago, so it stands to reason one team will want him then.
Nelson--60%...Jimmy is my upset pick. Pitching better after a bit of a funk. Plenty of team control for a mid market team. I feel Stearns will see what lesser arms go for and one club will meet his asking price, since he has shown he will take younger, lower level players.
Garza--55%...If not able to move, they will hope he stays healthy and are able to move him next year when only '17 remains on his contract. He is the one guy they'd probably eat much of his contract.
Boyer--51%...Again, I'll throw out that Cotts improvement for many contenders, but unsexy and not enough of a step up for them to give much for. In Blaine's case, he gets guys out despite striking out 3.6/9 and having a K/BB ratio of 1.6-1, and not throwing hard. He's done this consistently since '14, and gets lefties out too. A fine man and perfect clubhouse presence, he'd be a nice guy to trade for a low level lottery ticket and then bring back as a non roster player next season.

That'd be 8 players I expect to be traded ( with Hill), which is a lot for any team. But it is also a 70ish win team which has publicly stated they intend to rebuild. For those looking for a comparison sakes, last year, 6 were traded in JUL/AUG (Can you name them? Answer below.)
(scroll for answer)

Answer: Ramirez, Cotts, Broxton, Parra, Gomez, Fiers

7/17/2016 10:22:00 PM

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